由 jpichiban 近两个月，日元兑美元汇率大幅上涨，升值幅度达到约16日元，这主要得益于日元买卖供需的“拉锯”变化。日本企业开始将海外资金回流日本，人寿保险公司也开始进行汇率对冲等操作，这些因素推动了日元买入。尽管存在结构性的日元卖出因素，但大多数人认为日元不会回到历史性的贬值水平。日本企业开始将海外资金回流日本，并通过分红的方式将资金用于回购股票等股东回报，这将加剧日元升值压力。此外，海外企业对日本企业的收购以及日本国内投资的增加也是未来日元升值的重要因素。不过，日元买卖供需目前正逐渐趋于平衡，市场参与者对日元汇率前景存在分歧，观望情绪浓厚。尽管存在结构性的日元贬值因素，但日元汇率的走势仍将取决于未来日本和美国央行的货币政策等因素。
Original Title: 日元2个月升值16日元，买卖趋于平衡
Summary: In the past two months, the Japanese yen has appreciated significantly against the US dollar, gaining approximately 16 yen. This rise can be attributed to shifts in the “tug-of-war” between supply and demand for the Japanese yen. Japanese companies are repatriating funds from overseas, while life insurance companies are engaging in hedging strategies to mitigate yen appreciation risks, collectively driving yen purchases. Despite structural factors that contribute to yen depreciation, many believe the yen will not return to its historic lows. Japanese companies are bringing back foreign currency held overseas and using the proceeds for share buybacks and other shareholder returns, further pressuring the yen to appreciate. Additionally, acquisitions of Japanese companies by overseas entities and increased domestic investment are key factors driving future yen appreciation. However, the supply and demand for the yen are gradually becoming more balanced, leading to uncertainty among market participants regarding the yen’s future direction, resulting in a wait-and-see attitude. Despite structural factors pushing the yen lower, its direction will depend on future monetary policy decisions by the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve, among other factors.
Original article: http://cn.nikkei.com/politicsaeconomy/stockforex/56581-2024-09-02-12-47-01.html?print=1