由 jpichiban Mon, 03 Feb 2025 03:02:56 GMT
美国总统特朗普周日表示，他对墨西哥、加拿大和中国征收的全面关税可能会给美国人带来”短期”痛苦，全球市场反映出对关税可能破坏经济增长和重新引发通胀的担忧。特朗普表示，他将于周一与加拿大和墨西哥的领导人进行交谈，这两个国家已经宣布了自己的报复性关税，但他淡化了他们会改变他想法的预期。
“我不指望有什么戏剧性的事情发生，”特朗普从佛罗里达州的马阿拉歌庄园返回华盛顿时对记者说。”他们欠我们很多钱，我相信他们会还的。”他还表示，与欧盟的关税将”肯定会发生”，但没有说明具体时间。
批评人士表示，这位共和党总统对加拿大和墨西哥征收25%关税、对中国征收10%关税的计划将减缓全球经济增长，并推高美国人的价格。特朗普表示，这些措施是遏制移民和毒品走私以及刺激国内产业所必需的。
“短期内我们可能会有些痛苦，人们理解这一点。但从长远来看，美国几乎被世界上所有国家都占了便宜，”他说。金融市场的反应并不积极。美国股指期货在亚洲早盘交易中大跌，纳斯达克期货下跌2.35%，标普500期货下跌1.8%。美国油价跳涨逾2美元，汽油期货跳涨逾3%。
北美公司正准备迎接新的关税，这些关税可能会颠覆从汽车到消费品再到能源的各个行业。特朗普的关税将覆盖美国近一半的进口商品，并要求美国将自身的制造业产出增加一倍以上以弥补缺口——这在短期内是一项不可行的任务，ING分析师写道。
“从经济上讲，不断升级的贸易紧张局势对所有相关国家来说都是双输的局面，”分析师在周日的一份报告中写道。其他分析师表示，这些关税可能会使加拿大和墨西哥陷入衰退，并在国内引发”滞胀”——高通胀、经济增长停滞和高失业率。
特朗普的关税计划在三项行政命令中概述，将于美国东部时间周二凌晨12:01生效。一些分析师表示，谈判仍有希望，尤其是与加拿大和中国。高盛经济学家表示，这些关税可能是暂时的，但前景尚不明朗，因为白宫为取消关税设定了非常笼统的条件。白宫的一份情况说明书没有详细说明这三个国家需要做些什么才能获得缓刑。
特朗普誓言，在他所说的芬太尼（一种致命的阿片类药物）和非法移民进入美国的国家紧急状态结束之前，将继续实施这些措施。中国表示将在世界贸易组织挑战这些关税并采取其他反制措施，但也为与美国谈判敞开了大门。其最强烈的反击是针对芬太尼。”芬太尼是美国的问题，”中国外交部表示，并补充说中国已经采取了广泛的措施来解决这个问题。
墨西哥总统克劳迪娅·谢因鲍姆在首都外的一次演讲中举起拳头，誓言要坚韧不拔。她指责美国未能解决其芬太尼问题，并表示这不会通过关税来解决。谢因鲍姆表示，她将于周一提供更多关于她本周末下令的报复性关税的细节。加拿大周日表示，将根据相关国际机构采取法律行动挑战这些关税。总理贾斯廷·特鲁多周日还鼓励加拿大人 to boycott their longtime ally after ordering retaliatory tariffs against $155 billion of U.S. goods, from peanut butter, beer and wine to lumber and appliances.Canadian officials said they were preparing measures to help business who might be hurt by the trade war.Trump has heaped derision on Canada in particular, with calls for the country to become the 51st U.S. state. On Sunday, he said Canada “ceases to exist as a viable country” without its “massive subsidy.”Following throughThe tariff announcement made good on Trump’s repeated 2024 campaign threat, defying warnings from economists that a trade war would erode growth and raise prices for consumers and companies.Trump declared a national emergency under two laws, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and the National Emergencies Act, which give the president sweeping powers to impose sanctions to address crises.Trade lawyers said Trump could face legal challenges for testing the limits of U.S. laws. Democratic lawmakers Suzan DelBene and Don Beyer decried what they called a blatant abuse of executive power. Others warned about rising prices.”No matter which way you slice it: costs are going to climb for consumers,” Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said, vowing to try to “undo this mess.”Republicans welcomed Trump’s action.A Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week showed Americans were divided on tariffs, with 54% opposing new duties on imported goods and 43% in support, with Democrats more opposed and Republicans more supportive.Investors look aheadInvestors were considering the effects of additional tariffs promised by Trump, including those related to oil and gas, as well as steel, aluminum, semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals.Trump has also vowed actions against the European Union.A European Commission spokesperson said the EU “would respond firmly to any trading partner that unfairly or arbitrarily imposes tariffs on EU goods.”Europe’s biggest carmaker, Volkswagen, said it was counting on talks to avoid trade conflict.Automakers would be particularly hard hit, with new tariffs on vehicles built in Canada and Mexico burdening a vast regional supply chain where parts can cross borders several times before final assembly.Trump imposed only a 10% duty on energy products from Canada after oil refiners and Midwestern states raised concerns. At nearly $100 billion in 2023, imports of crude oil accounted for roughly a quarter of all U.S. imports from Canada, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.White House officials said Canada specifically would no longer be allowed the “de minimis” U.S. duty exemption for shipments under $800. The officials said Canada, along with Mexico, has become a conduit for shipments of fentanyl and its precursor chemicals into the U.S. via small packages that are not often inspected by customs agents.
原文链接：https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/03/trump-americans-may-feel-pain-in-trade-war-with-mexico-canada-china.html