由 jpichiban Mon, 03 Feb 2025 13:12:30 GMT
立即观看视频1:1601:16特朗普关税将使中国“非常接近”衰退：策略师分析Capital Connection美国总统唐纳德·特朗普上周末宣布对本国三大贸易伙伴征收高额关税，令投资者争相调整策略以应对全球贸易战。加拿大和墨西哥对美出口面临25%的关税，而中国商品则被征收较低的10%关税。加拿大已对价值1550亿美元的美国商品实施了25%的报复性关税。与此同时，特朗普表示，欧盟将是下一个目标，英国也在考虑之列。尽管特朗普在竞选期间多次威胁加征关税，但德意志银行分析师吉姆·里德在周一的一份报告中指出，市场此前“完全低估了风险”，现在将处于“严重冲击”之中。预计中短期内的影响包括全球经济增长放缓，尤其是制造业大国，油价飙升，美国消费者价格上涨，以及美国利率长期保持高位，导致美元走强。特朗普关税可能为中国政策制定者带来新挑战：增长率低于5%除美国及直接涉及的三大经济体外，全球各行业都在为关税的影响做准备。以下是预计将受冲击的领域：汽车行业从汽车品牌到零部件制造商，汽车企业预计将成为贸易紧张升级的最大受害者，因为它们是美国进口的主要领域。例如，德国大众拥有墨西哥最大的汽车工厂，生产出口美国的车辆。RBC资本市场分析估计，在最坏情况下，该公司收益可能因关税减少9%，而拥有克莱斯勒和吉普的Stellantis在墨西哥也有主要业务，包括生产Ram皮卡，收益可能下降12%。周一，股市立即受到影响，欧洲汽车制造商在地区Stoxx 600指数中暴跌3.4%，零部件供应商如Valeo和Forvia也因行业放缓预期而大幅下跌。芯片企业从台湾的台积电到荷兰的ASML，芯片和半导体设备制造商都在为关税影响做准备，因为该行业拥有全球供应链——包括墨西哥和中国的工厂——以及潜在的需求放缓。台积电，全球最大的芯片制造商，专门为其他公司如美国的苹果、英伟达、AMD、高通和英特尔制造半导体。与此同时，ASML生产全球许多芯片制造商用于在芯片上印刷复杂设计的极紫外光刻（EUV）机器。ASML将这些工具运往多个国家，包括美国、台湾和韩国。立即观看视频2:3002:30特朗普关税后，油气市场成“狂野西部”：Pickering Energy PartnersStreet Signs Asia“最新举措不会缓解已经影响半导体行业的高度紧张局势，”Hargreaves Lansdown的货币和市场主管苏珊娜·斯特里特周一表示。“像英伟达这样的公司依赖海外外包工厂（如中国和墨西哥）生产芯片——但构建AI数据中心所需的许多其他部件也可能因关税而受到影响，因为它们也是进口的。”消费品对美国消费者来说，一系列海外制造的家居和休闲用品可能会涨价，从家具和电器到服装、游戏机、手机和玩具。此外，出口到加拿大等实施报复性关税国家的美国产品，以及全球范围内跨越美国边境的消费品公司也将受到影响。特朗普关税 uld raise prices on technology like laptops, smartphones and AI One example is drinks giant Diageo, which has already been struggling with weakening demand in North America.Fintan Ryan, consumer equity research analyst at Goodbody, told CNBC that tariffs were one of the biggest challenges for the company this year as the U.S. accounts for roughly 45% of the company’s operating profit.Around 70% of its sales in the U.S. are imports, meanwhile, including Canadian whiskey, Mexican Tequila, Scotch, and Baileys and Guinness from EU member Ireland. Diageo is due to report earnings on Tuesday.Chinese e-retailersChinese companies face the highest risk from tariffs and other changes to U.S. market access, according to analysis by Morgan Stanley. Of those, hugely popular China-linked online shopping platforms such as Temu, Shein and AliExpress are set to be hard hit.This is because Trump has halted a trade exemption known as “de minimis,” which had allowed exporters to ship packages worth less than $800 into the U.S. duty-free.U.S. officials have claimed the exemption allowed Chinese e-commerce companies to undercut their competitors and flagged safety concerns due to their “minimal documentation and inspection.”The U.S. processed more than 1.3 billion de minimis shipments in 2024, according to data from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency.Without the exemption, high-volume, low-cost products from China’s online retailers will face duties, potentially pushing up the end price of the items and causing a fall in demand.— CNBC’s Ganesh Rao, Michael Bloom, Annie Palmer and Ryan Browne contributed to this story.
原文链接：https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/03/global-sectors-most-impacted-trump-tariffs.html