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随着政府刺激措施开始见效，以及唐纳德·特朗普关税带来的压力推动行业整合，中国的并购活动在经历多年下滑后开始出现反弹。2024年，中国的并购活动原本预计将连续第五年下降，但在第四季度突然加速。Dealogic的数据显示，该期间的交易价值从上一季度的720亿美元跃升78.5%，达到1290亿美元。
据CNBC采访的行业观察人士称，交易活动将进一步增加。ION Analytics（与Dealogic同属一个集团）的并购分析主管Vivian Wong表示，2024年第四季度交易流量的上升部分得益于政策制定者在9月底推出的刺激措施。Wong补充说，这些措施旨在整合国内产业，以增强在中国经济放缓中的竞争力。
自2020年以来，中国的并购交易量一直呈下降趋势。根据Dealogic的数据，2024年的总交易价值比2020年的5530亿美元减少了约45%。另类资产管理公司Skybound Capital的首席投资官Theodore Shou表示，这主要是由于中国整体经济活动疲软以及随之而来的看跌情绪。他补充说，过去几年中国企业的保守定位也导致私人市场交易的兴趣减少。
然而，2025年将“看到涉及中国的重大并购活动”，上海中伦律师事务所的合伙人Zhe Yu告诉CNBC。该律所为中国的并购和IPO交易提供法律支持。
除了北京的刺激措施外，美国总统特朗普任期前的一系列关税威胁及其最终实施也是中国企业适应多元化供应链并确保有能力做到这一点的关键驱动力，德勤亚太并购服务负责人Stanley Lah表示。Lah还担任该公司中国财务咨询副主管。
特朗普于2月1日签署了一项对中国征收10%关税的命令。这些关税于2月4日生效，并将叠加在其第一任期内对中国商品征收的25%关税之上。Lah表示，这一发展将推动国内企业进行整合，因为它们寻找避开中国作为原产地的替代运输路线，并试图在全球市场上变得更有效。他补充说：“这是他们需要快速完成的事情，购买比从头开始建设更快。”
这种压力在中国的小公司中最为明显。根据北京大学企业研究中心最新的小微企业调查，2024年第三季度，中国小微企业的平均收入为13.6万元人民币（1.87万美元），比2023年同期下降了4.8%。调查显示，为了维持生存，许多小微企业不得不削减招聘和缩小业务规模，采取一系列成本削减策略。
并购交易还使小公司能够在国际范围内更好地竞争。例如，中国的银行或证券公司需要整合并达到足够大的规模，以防止裁员，安永亚太区IPO负责人R表示。 ingo Choi. China saw its biggest wave of rural bank mergers last year as smaller banks were plagued by weak loan growth and increasing bad loans, according to Reuters’ analysis of government data.”It no longer makes economic sense for small players to reinvent the wheels again and again just to stay in the game and ultimately, they will not be able to afford that,” said Skybound Capital’s Shou. Chinese companies are competing “too forcefully” with each other, which is lowering their margins, he added.Corporate consolidations also offer an attractive exit strategy for some of those companies, especially as filing an IPO in the Chinese stock markets becomes increasingly uncertain, Yu said.Fewer regulatory hurdles, more financial meansLast September, in a bid to enhance deal-making efficiency, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced that it will simplify its approval processes and cut down the review time for qualified companies. It will also encourage firms to raise capital for their M&A deals in phases. Previously, deal-makers faced long approval periods and had to contend with extensive information disclosure demands that came with antitrust and data security concerns.While antitrust laws and hurdles remain, merging filing requirements have relaxed significantly, Yu said. “Many transactions that would otherwise have been subject to merger filing clearance are no longer required to be filed.”watch nowVIDEO2:4602:46UBP: volatility in China tech companies’ bonds ahead due to headline risksStreet Signs AsiaInterest rates in China are also likely to remain at current levels, which may keep M&A costs at a reasonable level, he added.Companies with a stronger balance sheet and cash piles also have the capacity to buy out firms in a weaker position as a form of investment, said Lah.Bigger domestic companies are accumulating large reserves of cash, with Chinese-listed firms paying out a record 2.4 trillion yuan in dividends last year. Goldman Sachs estimates that Chinese companies’ cash distribution could hit $3.5 trillion yuan this year to notch a new high.Big tech companies like Pinduoduo, a Chinese online retailer, currently have a lot of dry powder, which could go into dividend payouts, share buybacks and even M&A, Ernst & Young’s Choi observed.More domestic M&AA larger portion of the incoming M&A deals will center around domestic transactions rather than cross-border ones, said Deloitte’s Lah, a sentiment echoed by Shou. Both believe that foreign interest in buying Chinese companies has yet to recover.Moreover, cross-border M&A activities in the high-tech sector is unlikely because of geopolitical factors, said Yu.Still, Chinese companies may bail out failing foreign peers by merging with or acquiring them, said Shou.Domestically, some Chinese companies may opt for joint ventures in attempts to expand to new markets, Shou said. The “really hot sectors” which are doing well, such as technology and green energy, will see money coming in, according to Lah.Similarly, Zhong Lun Law Firm’s Yu sees many potential consolidation opportunities in industries related to new energy, such as solar and wind energy and nickel mining, among others.Less competitive industries and companies could also let themselves be bought out as a means to survive, the industry watchers whom CNBC spoke to suggested.One sector that will experience more deals is “fragmented industries with struggling players,” Lah said, because it’s “difficult to make profits as a small company.””They need a bigger scale,” or merge with a company with “bigger performance to survive in this new normal,” he said.
原文链接：https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/19/china-merger-acquisitions-activity-set-to-rise-as-companies-prepare-for-trump-tariffs.html