由 jpichiban Tue, 18 Feb 2025 23:02:47 GMT
今年欧洲股市表现强劲，无视关税威胁、政治动荡和经济停滞，策略师们认为未来仍有显著上涨空间，尽管期待已久的年度表现超越美国股市仍难以实现。1月份，泛欧斯托克600指数相对于标普500指数的表现创下过去十年中该月最佳，涨幅分别为6.3%和2.7%。这一势头延续至2月，截至2月18日，斯托克600指数月度上涨3.3%，远超标普500的1.25%。
欧洲股市的乐观情绪在某些层面上可能令人意外。美国总统特朗普重返白宫被认为提振了美国商业信心，而欧元区最大的经济体——德国和法国——都深陷政治不稳定之中。美国经济增长也继续领先于英国和欧元区。而且，这并非欧洲市场首次年初强势开局后全年表现落后于美国（不包括2022年，当时其跌幅较浅，斯托克600指数十年来未曾超越标普500指数）。
然而，美国正面临与关税相关的通胀担忧，而欧洲的央行官员们大多淡化了对其国内价格连锁影响的风险。英国央行、欧洲央行和瑞士国家银行均预计将在今年初继续降息，而美联储则按兵不动。瑞银欧洲股票策略主管格里·福勒上周告诉CNBC的“欧洲街景”节目：“市场对美国滞胀的担忧有所增加……美国政策的不确定性可能是导致大量资金从美国分散出去的原因之一。”福勒指出，美国占全球股市市值的70%以上，这意味着不需要大量资金从美国转移到他处就能产生“相当大”的影响。“这就是我们在欧洲看到的情况。特别是我们看到对冲基金在买入，”他补充道。
但福勒和其他人也发现了一系列支持欧洲的因素，促使瑞银上调了对欧洲相对于美国的评级。瑞银投资银行在一份报告中表示：“我们相信短期内欧洲可以超越美国。”这些因素包括乌克兰停火的可能——今年随着特朗普推动有争议的和谈，这一可能性增加——法国经济走强，其2025年预算终于通过——以及本周末选举后德国可能实施财政扩张。高盛策略师莎伦·贝尔领导团队上周也基于俄乌和平协议的可能性提高了对欧洲的潜在上行预期，列举的好处包括“降低风险溢价、降低能源价格、提升消费者信心、增强经济增长”。
“趁势享受” 花旗策略师周二在一份报告中表示，盈利预期的上调也是今年欧洲股市走强的推动力之一。他们写道，欧洲的修正趋势“比美国更令人印象深刻”，而“向上的修正明显强于季节性模式所预测的”。该行表示，当这种情况以前达到相同水平时，欧洲的盈利在未来六个月内平均比美国高出约5%，而MSCI欧洲（除英国）指数在此期间与美国股市保持同步。策略师们补充道：“最新的[盈利修正指数]读数，如果持续下去，可能预示着实际的[每股收益]将被上调，同时为欧洲股市进一步上涨提供潜在助力。”
花旗全球股票策略师大卫·格罗曼上月告诉CNBC，该行在全球配置中仍超配美国，但欧洲是其“周期性复苏中最喜欢的分散投资对象”。然而，他警告说，欧洲股市的上涨可能不会持续太久，因为“欧洲的盈利修正周期往往比美国更短”。格罗曼说：“欧洲的盈利修正周期往往比美国更短。所以，趁势享受吧。”
欧洲股市的上涨也受到该地区企业盈利预期上调的推动。花旗策略师周二在一份报告中表示，盈利预期的上调也是今年欧洲股市走强的推动力之一。他们写道，欧洲的修正趋势“比美国更令人印象深刻”，而“向上的修正明显强于季节性模式所预测的”。该行表示，当这种情况以前达到相同水平时，欧洲的盈利在未来六个月内平均比美国高出约5%，而MSCI欧洲（除英国）指数在此期间与美国股市保持同步。策略师们补充道：“最新的[盈利修正指数]读数，如果持续下去，可能预示着实际的[每股收益]将被上调，同时为欧洲股市进一步上涨提供潜在助力。”
花旗全球股票策略师大卫·格罗曼上月告诉CNBC，该行在全球配置中仍超配美国，但欧洲是其“周期性复苏中最喜欢的分散投资对象”。然而，他警告说，欧洲股市的上涨可能不会持续太久，因为“欧洲的盈利修正周期往往比美国更短”。格罗曼说：“欧洲的盈利修正周期往往比美国更短。所以，趁势享受吧。” of world space. “One of the reasons for that is we are maybe moving past what was peak bearishness on Europe,” he continued. UBS’s Gerry Fowler said that if Europe does continue to outperform, it won’t just be driven by European upside but also by U.S. vulnerability, particularly regarding the Magnificent 7 stocks . These seven U.S. tech giants accounted for over half of the S & P 500’s gain in 2024, but many have come under pressure this year. Automaker Tesla’s revenue missed expectations in the fourth quarter, for instance, while chip giant Nvidia has been rattled by China’s AI startup DeepSeek . “There’s certainly plenty of momentum and enthusiasm in Europe that I don’t think has been fully backed by regional allocators with large amounts of money, that are generally neutral to underweight Europe … and typically heavily overweight or at least neutral in the U.S.,” Fowler added. Daniel Morris, chief market strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, took a more downbeat view on the recent outperformance in Europe, however. “I think at least European investors may need to enjoy it while it lasts,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” last week. While Europe’s fourth-quarter earnings season was a good one, positive earnings surprises have been stronger in the U.S. than in Europe, Morris said. “So if, fundamentally, earnings are what drive equity markets, you just don’t see the same momentum. If you look at earnings revisions, again, more supportive for the U.S. If you do get tariffs, that’s better for the U.S.,” he said, adding that the recent outperformance could be because European stocks were starting from a lower base. “If you look at the economic data that was released last week, almost all of it disappointed in Europe. So it doesn’t really feel like — even with this [recent] performance in the market — that we’re at a turning point.” — CNBC’s Ganesh Rao contributed to this story.watch nowVIDEO2:4002:40Russia-Ukraine peace deal imperative for European economy, says strategistSquawk Box AsiaEuropean stock markets have been on a tear this year, brushing off tariff threats, political volatility and economic stagnation — and strategists see significant upside ahead, even if a long-awaited annual outperformance over their U.S. peers remains elusive.In January, the pan-European Stoxx 600 index notched its best outperformance against the S&P 500 for that month in the past decade, rising by 6.3% versus 2.7%. That momentum has continued into February, with the Stoxx 600’s 3.3% monthly gain as of Feb. 18 coming in well above the S&P 500’s 1.25%.This bullishness around Europe may appear surprising on some levels. U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to the White House has been described as fueling U.S. business optimism, while the euro area’s biggest economies — Germany and France — are both mired with political instabilities. U.S. economic growth also remains well ahead of the U.K. and euro zone’s.And it would not be the first year that European markets have kicked off the year strongly before stumbling behind the U.S. on an annual basis (excluding 2022 when its losses were shallower, the Stoxx 600 has not delivered a better performance than the S&P 500 for a decade).However, the U.S. is now grappling with tariff-related inflation concerns, while central bankers in Europe have largely downplayed the risk of a knock-on impact on prices in their own countries. The Bank of England, European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank are all expected to keep cutting interest rates early this year, while the Federal Reserve treads water.”The market is getting a little bit more concerned about stagflation in the U.S. … that policy uncertainty in the U.S. is perhaps one of the reasons why there’s been quite a lot of demand to diversify away from the U.S.,” Gerry Fowler, head of European equity strategy at UBS, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” last week. Fowler noted that the U.S. accounts for more than 70% of global equity market capitali zation, meaning it doesn’t require a lot of money to move from the U.S. elsewhere to have a “fairly big” impact.”That’s what we’ve seen in Europe. We’ve seen hedge funds in particular buying,” he added.But Fowler and others have also identified a range of factors supporting Europe, leading UBS to upgrade Europe relative to the U.S. “We believe Europe can outperform U.S., near term,” UBS Investment Bank said in a note. Get the CNBC Daily Open report in your inbox every morning and keep up to date with the markets wherever you are. Subscribe These factors include the potential for a ceasefire in Ukraine — a possibility this year as Trump pushes for controversial peace talks, — a stronger economy in France, which has finally passed its contentious 2025 budget — and for fiscal expansion in Germany following this weekend’s election.Goldman Sachs strategists led by Sharon Bell last week also raised their potential upside for Europe based on the odds of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, citing benefits including “lower risk premium, lower energy prices, better consumer confidence, stronger economic growth.”‘Enjoy it while it lasts’Positive earnings revisions have also been one of the drivers of European equity strength this year, Citi strategists said in a note Tuesday.European revision trends look “more impressive than in the U.S.” while “upwards revisions have been meaningfully stronger than seasonal patterns would predict,” they wrote.When this has happened to the same level before, European earnings have outpaced the U.S. by around 5% on average over the next six months, the bank said, and the MSCI Europe ex-UK Index has kept pace with U.S. equities over the same period.watch nowVIDEO2:1402:14European equities are ‘favorite diversifier’: Citi strategistStreet Signs Europe”The latest [Earnings Revisions Indices] readings, if they continue, could be a lead on actual [earnings per share] being upgraded, while providing a potential tailwind for further European equity market gain,” the strategists added.Citi’s global equity strategist, David Groman, told CNBC last month that the bank was still overweight on the U.S. in its global allocation, but that Europe was its “favorite diversifier in the cyclical, rest of world space.”One of the reasons for that is we are maybe moving past what was peak bearishness on Europe,” he continued.Loading chart…UBS’s Gerry Fowler said that if Europe does continue to outperform, it won’t just be driven by European upside but also by U.S. vulnerability, particularly regarding the Magnificent 7 stocks.These seven U.S. tech giants accounted for over half of the S&P 500’s gain in 2024, but many have come under pressure this year. Automaker Tesla’s revenue missed expectations in the fourth quarter, for instance, while chip giant Nvidia has been rattled by China’s AI startup DeepSeek.”There’s certainly plenty of momentum and enthusiasm in Europe that I don’t think has been fully backed by regional allocators with large amounts of money, that are generally neutral to underweight Europe … and typically heavily overweight or at least neutral in the U.S.,” Fowler added.Daniel Morris, chief market strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, took a more downbeat view on the recent outperformance in Europe, however.”I think at least European investors may need to enjoy it while it lasts,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” last week.While Europe’s fourth-quarter earnings season was a good one, positive earnings surprises have been stronger in the U.S. than in Europe, Morris said.”So if, fundamentally, earnings are what drive equity markets, you just don’t see the same momentum. If you look at earnings revisions, again, more supportive for the U.S. If you do get tariffs, that’s better for the U.S.,” he said, adding that the recent outperformance could be because European stocks were starting from a lower base.”If you look at the economic data that was released last week, almost all of it disappointed in Europe. So i t doesn’t really feel like — even with this [recent] performance in the market — that we’re at a turning point.”— CNBC’s Ganesh Rao contributed to this story.
原文链接：https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/19/europe-stocks-are-outperforming-the-us-this-year.html