由 jpichiban Thu, 20 Feb 2025 07:34:30 GMT
自三年前入侵乌克兰以来，俄罗斯投入了大量精力妖魔化美国，贬低其领导力、经济和文化，以及华盛顿在全球秩序中的所谓“霸权”。随着战争的持续，美国主导的国际制裁引发了莫斯科更多的尖刻言辞，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京及其他高级官员对俄罗斯经济关键领域及其精英阶层接连不断的惩罚性限制表示强烈不满。
然而，随着唐纳德·特朗普总统领导下的更为友好的政府上台，以及美俄之间为解决乌克兰冲突及恢复经济和地缘政治关系的初步对话，莫斯科的态度发生了显著转变，克里姆林宫近年来所持的对抗立场大幅软化。
本周，在沙特阿拉伯，随着特朗普与乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基之间的紧张关系公开化，普京首次就自2022年初以来官员间的首次面对面会谈后俄美关系的缓和发表了看法。普京对谈判给予了高度评价，称其“非常有成果”，并形容会议氛围“非常友好”。他提到，美方代表展现了开放态度，不带偏见地参与谈判进程，这与以往不同。
普京还赞扬特朗普在面对欧洲领导人因被排除在乌克兰未来谈判之外而表现出的“歇斯底里”时，展现了“克制”。周二在利雅得举行的俄美会谈，尽管基辅未参与，但表面上旨在为即将到来的乌克兰和平谈判奠定基础，之后莫斯科的氛围似乎迅速转变。
俄罗斯官方媒体对会谈及俄美关系的变化持积极态度，普京核心圈内的高级官员也表达了类似观点。克里姆林宫发言人德米特里·佩斯科夫周三表示，会谈更多聚焦于美俄关系的“复兴”而非乌克兰，当前氛围是“务实”的。外交部长谢尔盖·拉夫罗夫也呼应了这一看法，称会谈“非常建设性”，并表示两国已开始从拜登政府将关系推向的“深渊边缘”后退。
拉夫罗夫提到，现在需要清理拜登政府留下的遗产，该政府曾致力于摧毁两国长期伙伴关系的基础。CNBC已就俄罗斯对华盛顿立场的变化向克里姆林宫请求进一步评论，目前仍在等待回应。
无疑，乔·拜登离开白宫及特朗普的回归促使莫斯科对美言辞软化，特朗普在2017至2021年首个总统任期内与俄罗斯关系热络。普京甚至对特朗普上任初期宣布的关税政策表示支持，称美国的欧洲盟友在面对特朗普的贸易威胁时会“站在主人脚下”。俄罗斯也将从结束这场战争中获益匪浅。 has put its economy on a war footing, with Moscow having massively ramped up its production of military hardware, diverting workers away from other key industries and production, contributing to persistent inflationary pressures and a rise in the price of basic goods and foods that have been felt keenly by Russian citizens.Russian President Vladimir Putin meets workers during an aviation factory visit in the east Siberian city of Ulan-Ude on March 14, 2023.Vladimir Gerdo | AFP | Getty ImagesDespite the war, Russia’s economy is estimated to have grown 3.8% in 2024, according to the latest estimates from the International Monetary Fund, although the body predicted Russia would see a deceleration to 1.4% growth in 2025. The “sharp slowdown,” the IMF said in its former forecast, was envisaged “as private consumption and investment slow amid reduced tightness in the labor market and slower wage growth.” For his part, Putin predicted growth of 2-2.5% in 2025 in his annual address in December, admitting that the economy was “overheating.”Economy to benefitMoscow has frequently downplayed the impact of Western sanctions on its major industries, particularly its oil and gas sectors, and any hit to its export revenues, instead championing its ability to mitigate sanctions by bolstering trade with other countries, such as China and India. Nonetheless, an alleviation of restrictions and a reopening of access to former markets in the West as part of a peace deal would undoubtedly be a boon to Moscow, economists say.”The decision by the U.S. and Russia to ‘lay the groundwork’ to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict,” Liam Peach, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said in a note Tuesday.”Negotiations will take time and the macroeconomic implications will depend on the features of any agreement [but] we think a peace deal could result in higher Russian natural gas flows and lower energy prices, but any boost to Europe’s economy – outside Russia and Ukraine – is likely to be limited.””A peace agreement that is broadly favourable to all sides would have macroeconomic benefits: it could set the basis for a modest pick-up in some Russian pipeline gas flows to Europe [and] the easing of Western sanctions on Russia,” although perhaps only in certain areas, such as Russia’s access to the U.S. financial system, he noted in emailed comments.watch nowVIDEO2:5202:52Europe must do more as it faces ‘existential moment,’ Germany’s Baerbock saysPoliticsDavid Roche, strategist at Quantum Strategy, commented that autocratic leaders like Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping were the ultimate “winners” of the U.S.’ newfound antipathy toward old allies and warming toward Moscow. Roche and other strategists are also cynical that Russia will be inclined to relinquish the war-oriented economy now that it has become entrenched.”The winners are Putin and Xi. They have proven how weak and decadent democracy is,” Roche said in emailed comments.”The U.S.’ retreat into MAGA isolationism creates a big opportunity for the ‘Axis of Autocracies’ [including Russia and China] to replace the U.S. … in terms of aid, investment and political drawing power,” Roche said in emailed comments Wednesday.”Putin will use the ceasefire to reconstitute Russia’s armed forces. Once the fighting stops the horrific Russian losses of men and machines become daily additions to the armed forces. The Russian war machine is producing the entire equipment of the Germany’s armed forces every 6 months … Ironically there were signs of seismic cracks in the Russian war machine. It wouldn’t have taken much to push it over the brink. But that is over as soon as losses stop,” he said.Ukraine fumingUkraine and its European allies have been left fuming by the U.S., and Russia rekindling diplomatic ties and forging ahead with talks without their input.Zelenskyy had already voiced his consternation at Kyiv being excluded f rom talks in Saudi Arabia, but his frustration emerged fully on Wednesday when he said Trump was being influenced by Russian “disinformation.”watch nowVIDEO4:3304:33Palantir CEO on Elon Musk & DOGE: Biggest problem in society is the ‘legitimacy of our institutions’Squawk BoxThat was when Trump hit back, saying Zelenskyy was a “dictator without elections” and had poor polling ratings despite an opinion poll released Wednesday by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology showing that 57% of Ukrainians trust their president.Ukraine has not held elections since Zelenskyy’s election in 2019, saying it was impracticable to hold a ballot during war and when martial law is in place.
原文链接：https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/20/russia-is-doing-a-u-turn-after-spending-the-last-3-years-hating-us.html