由 jpichiban Fri, 21 Feb 2025 06:11:54 GMT
Production at the VW plant in Emden.Sina Schuldt | Picture Alliance | Getty ImagesThe struggling German economy has been a major talking point among critics of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ government during the latest election campaign — but analysts warn a new leadership might not turn these tides.As voters prepare to head to the polls, it is now all but certain that Germany will soon have a new chancellor. The Christian Democratic Union’s Friedrich Merz is the firm favorite.Merz has not shied away from blasting Scholz’s economic policies and from linking them to the lackluster state of Europe’s largest economy. He argues that a government under his leadership would give the economy the boost it needs.Experts speaking to CNBC were less sure.”There is a high risk that Germany will get a refurbished economic model after the elections, but not a brand new model that makes the competition jealous,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, told CNBC.The CDU/CSU economic agendaThe CDU, which on a federal level ties up with regional sister party the Christian Social Union, is running on a “typical economic conservative program,” Brzeski said.It includes income and corporate tax cuts, fewer subsidies and less bureaucracy, changes to social benefits, deregulation, support for innovation, start-ups and artificial intelligence and boosting investment among other policies, according to CDU/CSU campaigners.”The weak parts of the positions are that the CDU/CSU is not very precise on how it wants to increase investments in infrastructure, digitalization and education. The intention is there, but the details are not,” Brzeski said, noting that the union appears to be aiming to revive Germany’s economic model without fully overhauling it.”It is still a reform program which pretends that change can happen without pain,” he said.Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, head of forecasting at research institute DIW Berlin, noted that the CDU is also looking to reach gross domestic product growth of around 2% again through its fiscal and economic program called “Agenda 2030.”But reaching such levels of economic expansion in Germany “seems unrealistic,” not just temporarily, but also in the long run, she told CNBC.Germany’s GDP declined in both 2023 and 2024. Recent quarterly growth readings have also been teetering on the verge of a technical recession, which has so far been narrowly avoided. The German economy shrank by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, compared with the previous three-month stretch, according to the latest reading.Europe’s largest economy faces pressure in key industries like the auto sector, issues with infrastructure like the country’s rail network and a housebuilding crisis.Dany-Knedlik also flagged the so-called debt brake, a long-standing fiscal rule that is enshrined in Germany’s constitution, which limits the size of the structural budget deficit and how much debt the government can take on.Whether or not the clause should be overhauled has been a big part of the fiscal debate ahead of the election. While the CDU ideally does not want to change the debt brake, Merz has said that he may be open to some reform.”To increase growth prospects substantially without increasing debt also seems rather unlikely,” DIW’s Dany-Knedlik said, adding that, if public investments were to rise within the limits of the debt brake, significant tax increases would be unavoidable.”Taking into account that a 2 Percent growth target is to be reached within a 4 year legislation period, the Agenda 2030 in combination with conservatives attitude towards the debt break to me reads more of a wish list than a straight forward economic growth program,” she said.watch nowVIDEO4:2204:22Change in German government will deliver economic success: CEO of German employers associationSquawk Box EuropeFranziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, sees some benefits to the plans of the CDU-CSU union, saying they would likely “be positive” for the economy, but warning 因此，由此带来的提振作用将是微小的。她告诉CNBC：“减税将支持消费者支出和私人投资，但疲弱的情绪意味着消费者可能会将税后收入的很大一部分储蓄起来，企业可能不愿投资。”然而，帕尔马斯指出，并非每个人都能从新政策中获益。所得税减免对中高收入家庭的益处大于低收入家庭，后者还可能受到社会福利潜在削减的影响。
周日的选举之后，基民盟/基社盟几乎肯定需要寻找一个联盟伙伴来组建多数政府，社会民主党或绿党成为最有可能的候选者。每天早上将CNBC每日开盘报告发送到您的收件箱，无论您身在何处，都能及时了解市场动态。订阅。各党需要达成一项联盟协议，概述他们的共同目标，包括经济方面的目标——这可能会被证明是一项艰巨的任务，Capital Economics的帕尔马斯说。
“基民盟与社会民主党和绿党在经济政策立场上有显著差异，”她说，并指出了在税收和监管方面的分歧。帕尔马斯解释说，虽然基民盟/基社盟希望减少这两项，但社会民主党和绿党寻求提高税收，并至少在部分领域反对放松管制。然而，该集团在任何潜在的谈判中可能都掌握着权力，因为他们可能会选择与社会民主党或绿党合作。
“因此，我们怀疑联盟协议将包括基民盟的大部分主要经济提案，”她说。现在观看视频1:4301:43投资者称德国“缺乏雄心”Squawk Box Europe
原文链接：https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/21/germanys-election-will-usher-in-new-leadership-but-might-not-change-its-economy.html