由 jpichiban 日本自民党总裁选举将于9月12日发布公告，27日进行投开票。由于派系影响力减弱，参选门槛降低，导致候选人众多，竞争激烈。候选人观点、政治态度、政权运营方针等备受关注。由于没有明确的优胜人选，各方仍在相互试探。选举结果可能会影响自民党势力恢复，并可能与下一届众议院选举和立民代表选举产生联动，在经济、社会保障、外交、安全保障等重要领域引发舆论反应。
Original Title: 日本自民党总裁选：派系减弱，相互试探
Summary: The schedule for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election in Japan has been set, with the announcement scheduled for September 12 and the voting on September 27. More than 10 candidates have emerged, creating a chaotic situation with no clear winner. The factions that have traditionally served as a constraint on the support of candidates have been disbanded, expanding the space for individual judgments by members of parliament. The next House of Representatives election will take place in the fall. Who is best suited to be the LDP’s “representative figure” is still being tested.
The low threshold for candidacy and the proliferation of candidates may lead to a diversification of criteria for judgment. In addition to the LDP’s internal relationships, candidates’ views, political attitudes, and approaches to governing will be closely scrutinized.
Former Minister of Economic Security Takahiro Kobayashi, who announced his candidacy on August 19, emphasized that “the LDP needs to be reborn.” This is a statement made in response to the strong calls for reform within the party. Senior members of parliament with a high number of election wins and who have expressed their intention to run have emphasized their experience in diplomacy and promoted the stability of government operations.
The absence of faction influence in this presidential election has weakened their presence. Factions previously played a role in coordinating candidates in the early stages, but this role has been weakened, lowering the threshold for candidacy. On the other hand, even those who express their intention to run cannot guarantee that they will be able to secure the required 20 nominators.
Multiple candidates from the same faction who would normally have taken unified action have emerged. On the Kishida faction, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi will run for election, while Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa is also vying for more nominators. On the Motegi faction, Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi and former Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato have both expressed their intentions to run.
In the 2012 presidential election, there was a precedent for the Machimura faction having both Shinzo Abe and Nobutaka Machimura running for election. At that time, the LDP was still in the opposition, and the role of factions in allocating funds and positions was weaker. After the LDP returned to power, there were no cases of multiple candidates running.
Affected by political funding issues, the LDP has banned factions that have historically raised their influence through the allocation of funds and personnel appointments through the party’s guidelines and advocates for their transformation into “policy groups.” With the exception of the Aso faction, the other five factions have decided to revoke their registration as political entities, leaving them in a position where they are unable to take the lead.
In past LDP presidential elections, the number of candidates has tended to be higher when the incumbent president does not run. Since 2001, the incumbent president has not run eight times, with an average of 3.6 candidates, exceeding the average number of candidates (2.0) when the incumbent president runs. The number of candidates this time could exceed the highest number in 2008 and 2012 (5).
If the election becomes a chaotic battle, it will be difficult to delineate support groups. There may be fierce competition for votes not only among factions but also among young members of parliament with similar attributes or conservative members of parliament.
For example, members of parliament seeking a young or reformist image may support Takahiro Kobayashi (elected four times to the House of Representatives, age 49) and former Minister of the Environment Shinjiro Koizumi (elected five times, age 43).
In the last presidential election in 2021, Takahiro Kobayashi was a nominator for economic security minister Sanae Takaichi. The two share similar positions on issues such as constitutional amendment and economic security, and they will be vying for the same supporting members of parliament.
Sanae Takaichi received the support of Shinzo Abe in the last election and secured votes from many members of parliament. The press conference announcing Takahiro Kobayashi’s candidacy on August 19 was attended by 24 members of parliament, 11 of whom previously belonged to the Abe faction.
The LDP presidential election will be contested in terms of the “members of parliament vote” in which each member of parliament has one vote and the “party member vote” which is decided by voting among members of the party nationwide. The members of parliament vote and the party member vote each account for 367 votes.
If no candidate receives a majority of the votes, a runoff election will be held between the top two candidates. The new president will be decided by adding the 367 votes from members of parliament to the 47 votes from each prefecture, each of which has one vote.
The more candidates there are, the more votes will be dispersed, making it more difficult to obtain a majority in the first vote, increasing the likelihood of a runoff election. In the runoff election, the weight of the members of parliament vote is greater than in the first vote, so there have been cases in the past where even the candidate who received the most party member votes lost.
In the last presidential election in 2021, Taro Kono received the most party member votes in the first vote, but Fumio Kishida won after the runoff election. In 2012, Shigeru Ishiba received the most party member votes in the first vote, but he was reversed by Abe in the runoff election, which only had the members of parliament vote at that time.
The members of parliament vote will be influenced by personal relationships. Although the LDP election calls for reform within the party, if the results reflect the power within the party and diverge from the trend of the party member vote, which is considered closer to public opinion, it could have a negative impact on the recovery of the LDP’s influence.
Because the term of office for members of the House of Representatives expires in October 2025, the next House of Representatives election will be held in about a year. The cabinet’s approval ratings are likely to rise due to expectations when the government is newly formed. Some observers believe that the new prime minister may dissolve the House of Representatives and hold a general election in the fall. There is also a House of Councillors election in the summer of 2025.
The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the largest opposition party, plans to hold a leadership election, with the announcement scheduled for September 7 and the voting on September 23. The LDP presidential election and the CDP leadership election, which are being held at the same time, can be seen as a precursor to the next House of Representatives election.
The policies of the winning candidates will become the party’s pledges. This will be an opportunity to observe public opinion in key areas such as economics, social security, and foreign and security affairs.
The political reforms based on political funding issues are also a point of discussion. There are also many members of parliament who have not recorded their political donations in their reports.
If the LDP reforms go too deep, it may be difficult to secure members of parliament votes. On the other hand, if it gives the impression that reforms are not being actively pursued, it will not be able to project an image of “reform,” creating a dilemma.
Original article: http://cn.nikkei.com/china/cpolicssociety/56478-2024-08-21-10-56-39.html?print=1