由 jpichiban Tue, 04 Feb 2025 09:54:38 GMT
立即观看视频1:4701:47关税升级可能导致经济衰退和通胀压力：瑞银集团CEO埃尔莫蒂欧洲财经频道Squawk Box Europe瑞银集团股价下跌，因该行第四季度业绩及高达30亿美元的股票回购计划未能打动市场。这家瑞士最大银行周二报告称，归属于股东的净利润为7.7亿美元，低于公司提供的共识预估中的4.83亿美元，也低于伦敦证券交易所集团（LSEG）分析师调查中886.4万美元的平均预测。期间集团收入达到116.35亿美元，与LSEG分析师调查中116.4亿美元的预期基本持平。该行还宣布计划在2025年上半年回购10亿美元股票，并在今年下半年追加最多20亿美元——但附带条件是，这一目标需基于该行实现其“财务目标，且瑞士当前资本制度不发生重大且立即的变化”。集团进一步提议2024财年每股派发0.90美元股息，同比增长29%。瑞银股票开盘上涨，但在伦敦时间上午9:54下跌5.57%。德意志银行分析师指出第四季度业绩“稳健”，但表示“部门组合本可以更好”，考虑到个人与企业银行部门的表现——该部门第四季度增长8%，“主要反映了其他收入的改善，部分被净利息收入下降所抵消”，瑞银表示。“总体来看，业绩不错，但可能没有乍一看那么好，”花旗分析师表示，他们欢迎成本和股息超出预期，但强调到2026年底的整体成本和成本收入指引保持不变，而净利息收入（NII）的“拖累将持续”到第一季度。其他第四季度亮点包括：有形股本回报率达到3.9%，而第三季度为7.3%。衡量银行偿付能力的CET1资本比率为14.3%，与第三季度持平。投资银行业务在第四季度表现亮眼，基础收入同比增长37%，得益于全球银行业务和全球市场表现的“强劲增长”。集团全球财富管理部门第四季度收入增长10%，“主要受经常性净费用收入增加、其他负收入减少和交易性收入增加推动”。“对我们来说，在投资银行中，始终非常重要的是在我们希望竞争的领域达到或接近最佳水平，”瑞银集团CEO塞尔吉奥·埃尔莫蒂周二告诉CNBC的卡罗琳·罗斯。“因此，如果我看股票效应、资本市场活动，以及并购和杠杆融资，我们不仅在市场条件有利的情况下实现了收入增长，而且还在市场份额上有所提升。”谈到银行的核心财富管理业务，他补充道：“如果你看与风险相关资产的回报率，财富管理业务一直在扩大，因此我们在与风险相关资产的回报率上提高了几个百分点。”在其第一季度展望中，该行预计其全球财富管理业务的净利息收入将出现低至中个位数百分比的下降，而其个人与企业银行部门的净利息收入将下降10%。规模的重要性在经历了2023年与陷入困境的国内竞争对手瑞士信贷的政府支持合并风波后，瑞银表示，其2024年整合里程碑进展顺利，并在第四季度实现了额外的7亿美元总成本节约。集团原本希望到去年年底实现总计130亿美元成本节约中的75亿美元，CEO塞尔吉奥·埃尔莫蒂在上个月的彭博采访中表示，作为这一过程的一部分，裁员是“不可避免的”——尽管集团旨在依赖自愿离职。瑞银周二… aid it plans to achieve another $2.5 billion of gross cost saving this year.The Swiss belt tightening adds to a picture of broader expense discipline and restructuring across Europe’s banking sectors, as lenders exit a period of high interest rates and claw profitability to keep pace with U.S. peers. On Monday, fellow Swiss bank Julius Baer revealed an additional target of 110 million of Swiss francs ($120 million) in gross savings, while HSBC last week said it is preparing to wind down its M&A and equity capital markets operations in Europe, the U.K. and the U.S.Armed with a balance sheet that topped $1.7 trillion in 2023 — roughly double Switzerland’s anticipated economic output last year — UBS has been battling vocal concerns at home that its scale has breached the Swiss government’s comfort, depriving the lender of peers that can absorb it and facing Bern with a steep nationalization price tag, in the event of its failure. Questions now linger over whether UBS will face further capital requirements as a result.The Swiss economy has already been backed into a fragile corner by depressed annual inflation — of just 0.6% in December — and a punitively strong Swiss franc, which only gained further ground on Monday as the global tumult resulting from U.S. tariffs pushed jittery investors toward the safe-haven asset.”Of course, the ongoing tariff discussions are creating uncertainties, as you can see in the current environment, the market is very sensitive to any positive or negative developments,” Ermotti warned, while stressing some of the volatility has been priced in by markets.”Of course, an escalation of tariffs, the tariff wars, would most likely translate into economic consequences in terms of potential recessions or inflationary pressure, which in turn, would force central banks to stop the easing path, and potentially even have to reverse that, would definitely be something that the market [has] not been pricing on, and would lead into higher spikes in volatilities. Get the CNBC Daily Open report in your inbox every morning and keep up to date with the markets wherever you are. Subscribe
原文链接：https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/04/ubs-earnings-q4-2024.html