由 jpichiban Thu, 06 Feb 2025 00:50:25 GMT
The newly appointed Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Sanjay Malhotra leaves after addressing a press conference, in Mumbai on December 11, 2024. Indranil Mukherjee | Afp | Getty ImagesIndia’s central bank will likely cut benchmark interest rates in its policy meeting that’s underway, as easing inflation offers it room to stimulate a faltering economy, though the rupee hovers at record lows.The Reserve Bank of India is poised to trim the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% as it concludes its policy meeting on Friday, setting off “a shallow rate cut cycle,” said Taimur Baig, chief economist at DBS Bank.Indian bonds have rallied in recent weeks with the 10-year benchmark yield falling by 16.5 basis points in about three weeks to 6.664% as of Wednesday close, according to LSEG data, as traders ramp up wagers for an interest rate cut at the February meeting.If the RBI does lower rates, it will be the first cut in nearly five years. The central bank last reduced rates in May 2020 as the country battled the Covid-19 pandemic-inflicted downturn.Investors will also scrutinize the statement of the new RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra to assess the direction of the bank’s monetary policy. Malhotra took charge in December.”It will be interesting to see if the RBI continues with the governor’s statement, apart from the monetary policy statement, as a tool of policy communication,” Goldman Sachs said.The Wall Street bank anticipates a quarter-percentage cut this week, along with a monetary policy shift to looser “accommodative” stance from “neutral.” It also penciled in an additional 25-basis-point cut in April.The benchmark repo rate has remained steady at 6.5% for past two years, as the domestic inflation rate has stayed above the central bank’s medium-term target of 4%, and even breached the RBI’s upper tolerance limit of 6% in October.”The delay in implementation of universal tariffs by the incoming U.S. administration provides some tactical space for RBI to prioritize domestic growth … and space to cut policy rates,” said Ruhul Bajoria, an economist at Bank of America in India. Get a weekly roundup of news from India in your inbox every Thursday. Subscribe now The Indian government has been steadily lowering its full-year real GDP forecasts, after the economic growth missed expectations by a large margin in the quarter ended September, when its grew by 5.4% — its slowest expansion in nearly two years.The latest projection last month trimmed the growth estimates for the current fiscal year to 6.4% from 7.2% in October, its worst in four years, while inflation projection was raised to 4.8% versus 4.5% earlier.After breaching the upper limit in October, India’s consumer price inflation has eased, dropping within the central bank’s tolerance ceiling of 6%, coming in at 5.22% in December and 5.48% in November.Changed houseSofter inflation readings have offered the RBI room to lower rates, in what is also the first policy meeting after Malhotra took charge for a three-year term.His predecessor, Shaktikanta Das had maintained steady interest rates for nearly two years toward the end of his six-year stint.watch nowVIDEO3:2203:22Growth rates in India still very solid, says HSBC’s Jose RascoClosing Bell: OvertimeIn RBI’s most recent monetary policy meeting in December, the rate-setting panel kept the key interest rate unchanged in a split decision, while cutting the cash reserve ratio by 50 basis points to 4.0%, effectively easing the monetary conditions.The new senior monetary policy leadership could give “the MPC a fresh look, but also possibly a different approach,” Bajoria said.Malhotra has remained fairly tight-lipped on his monetary policy views, but he acknowledged in the financial stability report in December that easing inflation and the potential for monetary policy flexibility were positive developments.The governor also cautioned the medium-term economic outlook remains challenging, citing risks including rising geopolitical con 据报道，印度央行行长帕特尔已下令对央行的通胀和增长预测工具进行审查，以尽量减少预测误差。卢比贬值使得放松货币政策变得更加困难。自11月初以来，卢比对美元已贬值3.6%。随着卢比对美元汇率创下历史新低，任何降息举措都可能引发国内通胀进一步上升，给卢比带来更大压力，并可能引发资本外流。印度央行已采取行动，在外汇市场实施大规模干预，以缓冲外国资本可能突然外流的影响，避免货币大幅贬值。美国银行的经济学家指出，干预的波动水平似乎有所提高，卢比疲软可能影响时机，但不会否定政策支持的必要性。
印度观察家们也对美国总统特朗普可能采取的行动感到紧张，特朗普在竞选期间提出了普遍关税的想法。2023年印度对美国的贸易顺差超过430亿美元，2024年前11个月超过410亿美元，随着特朗普专注于减少贸易逆差，印度面临更严格的审查。特朗普第二任期的美国贸易政策框架可能强化美元和国债收益率，使美国利率在更长时间内保持高位。这使包括印度央行在内的亚洲央行政策决策复杂化，因为通过放松政策来促进增长将意味着扩大利率差异，降低其投资资产的吸引力。
印度总理莫迪被视为热衷于加强与特朗普政府的贸易关系，并避免与最大贸易伙伴发生关税紧张。据报道，莫迪已受邀下周与特朗普会面。
原文链接：https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/06/india-monetary-policy-rate-cut-after-four-years-likely.html