由 jpichiban Thu, 06 Feb 2025 16:09:42 GMT
百时美施贵宝（Bristol Myers Squibb）周四公布的季度业绩超出预期，但2025年的疲软指引导致股价下跌。然而，Jim Cramer对这家制药公司的信心依然坚定。根据LSEG汇编的分析师估计，第四季度收入同比增长8%，达到123.4亿美元，远超115.7亿美元的共识预期。LSEG数据显示，截至12月31日的三个月，调整后每股收益（EPS）为1.67美元，高于1.46美元的预期。按年计算，调整后每股收益下降了1.8%。
百时美施贵宝（BMY）为何我们持有它：公司新推出的精神分裂症治疗药物Cobenfy具有巨大的销售潜力，尽管仍处于早期阶段。百时美施贵宝拥有关键产品，如抗凝血药物Eliquis和肺癌治疗药物Opdivo，这些药物将在未来几年内专利到期。然而，我们相信包括Cobenfy在内的增长药物组合可以帮助公司度过专利悬崖。
启动日期：2024年11月25日
最近购买日期：2025年1月17日
竞争对手：艾伯维（AbbVie）、辉瑞（Pfizer）、安进（Amgen）、强生（Johnson & Johnson）和默克（Merck）
结论：百时美施贵宝周四股价下跌——盘中低点下跌超过4.5%，跌破57美元——这对长期投资者来说是一个礼物。我们重申买入评级1，目标价为每股70美元。百时美施贵宝股价随后有所回升，早盘交易中下跌约2%。
“这是一个买入机会，”Jim周四早上在CNBC的“Squawk on the Street”节目中表示。“我祈祷这次（抛售）会发生，这样我就可以进去再买一点。”由于受到限制，俱乐部无法购买，但这并不妨碍我们告诉会员我们会怎么做。Jim后来在Morning Meeting上说：“你必须站在那里，毫不犹豫地买入。”
我们的核心论点是Cobenfy，这是公司去年年底在美国推出的新精神分裂症治疗药物。它开局良好，第四季度销售额达到1000万美元。在周四的财报电话会议上，高管们对医生和患者对Cobenfy的反馈以及该药物迄今为止获得的保险覆盖水平表示满意。
“这是几十年来精神分裂症治疗中第一个新的作用机制。因此，我们正在与团队一起，向客户介绍Cobenfy的差异化特点，并打破习惯性处方，这需要一些时间，”首席商业化官Adam Lenkowsky在电话会议上表示。“因此，我们预计到2025年将继续看到强劲的增长……今年下半年将有所加速。但总的来说，我们对目前看到的情况非常满意。我们计划随着时间的推移，将其打造成公司的一个非常重要的产品。”
扩大Cobenfy的处方标签以包括其他病症可以帮助该药物实现其商业潜力。在这方面，百时美施贵宝预计今年将有两项试验结果公布，这些结果可能成为推动股价上涨的催化剂，包括一项评估其对阿尔茨海默病精神病效果的研究。今年预计的另一项数据是辅助治疗精神分裂症，这将扩大其在该疾病中的处方机会。除此之外，百时美施贵宝预计到本世纪末每年至少有一项Cobenfy的临床试验结果公布，涵盖双相I型障碍和自闭症谱系障碍易激惹等病症。
Jim周四重申了他的观点，即Cobenfy可能是有史以来最大的药物之一。然而，百时美施贵宝对2025年的整体指引确实令人失望，其收入预测约为455亿美元，低于LSEG分析师预期的473.6亿美元。调整后每股收益指引为6.55至6.85美元，也低于6.92美元的共识预期。
不过，有几个理由可以忽略这一失误。其中最主要的是，血癌治疗药物Revlimid的销售正在下滑。 eeing increased generic competition, which has contributed to the gap between guidance and consensus. Jim said the company has been very up-front about the Revlimid issues, which is why he’s not too concerned. Pomalyst, another of its cancer treatments, also is grappling with a patent expiration in Europe. Indeed, executives said on the call that its portfolio of “legacy drugs,” where its exposure to patent expirations is concentrated, is probably to blame for any guidance miss, coupled with a roughly $500 million foreign exchange headwind that may not have been baked into analysts’ financial models. We also liked that management announced plans to cut up to $2 billion in costs by 2027. This probably won’t be the last time Bristol Myers’ patent cliffs create noise around its results, even if it’s a well-documented part of the story. However, as long as Bristol Myers’ executes on the launch of Cobenfy and its broader “growth portfolio,” which saw a 21% year-over-year sales increase in the quarter,” continues to perform well, there’s reason to believe the stock can keep working. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long BMY. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.Boxes of Opdivo from Bristol Myers are seen at the Huntsman Cancer Institute at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City, Utah, July 22, 2022.George Frey | ReutersBristol Myers Squibb on Thursday reported better-than-expected quarterly results, but weak guidance for 2025 sent shares lower. Jim Cramer’s faith in the drugmaker is unshaken.
原文链接：https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/06/bristol-myers-stock-decline-in-response-to-weak-guidance-is-a-gift-to-investors.html