由 jpichiban Fri, 07 Feb 2025 00:52:57 GMT
尽管电商和云计算巨头亚马逊在周四收盘后公布了超出预期的第四季度业绩，但其股价在盘后交易中仍下跌约4%。市场参与者对2025年第一季度预测未达预期以及资本支出计划超出预期表示担忧。然而，我们认为这两点都不足以改变投资逻辑。根据LSEG汇编的估计，收入同比增长10%至1878亿美元，超过了预期的1873亿美元。基于公认会计原则（GAAP）的每股收益增至1.86美元，相比去年同期的1美元和预期的1.49美元有所提升。营业利润同比增长61%至212亿美元，超过了190亿美元的共识预测。
**亚马逊为何值得持有**：亚马逊虽以在线购物闻名，但其云计算业务同样贡献显著。广告业务则是另一高增长、高利润的领域。管理层正积极缩短配送时间并降低总体成本。Prime会员服务通过免费配送、视频流媒体及众多额外福利，保持用户每月付费。主要竞争对手包括沃尔玛、塔吉特、微软和Alphabet。最近一次买入日期为2024年8月12日，首次投资始于2018年2月。
**总结**：得益于AWS和广告等高利润业务的收入增长，同时控制电商业务成本，亚马逊再次实现了令人印象深刻的季度利润增长。若非外汇影响导致收入比预期少7亿美元，本季度表现将更为出色，收入也将超过其指导范围上限。尽管第一季度展望略低于预期，但我们并不因此焦虑，因为亚马逊历来有超越预测的记录。尽管市场对大型超大规模企业在AI上的巨额支出持保留态度，亚马逊CEO安迪·贾西在电话会议中坚信这些长期投资将物有所值。他解释道：“AI无疑是自云计算以来最大的机遇，也可能是自互联网以来商业领域最大的技术变革和机会。因此，我认为我们的业务、客户和股东中长期都会对我们追求AI的资本和商业机会感到满意。”
**整体来看**，亚马逊的高利润业务线持续强劲。管理层今年有明确的降成本路径，意味着利润率应继续上升。若利润率持续提高，我们愿意继续持有亚马逊。我们重申1级评级，并将目标股价从240美元上调至260美元。
**评论**：云部门亚马逊网络服务（AWS）收入同比增长19%，连续第三个季度保持相同年增长率。这一结果与微软Azure和谷歌云在本财报季的趋势一致，虽然收入略低于共识预期，但增长依然可观。然而，与云计算同行一样，亚马逊指出产能限制是收入更快增长的制约因素。贾西在电话会议中表示：“如果我们不受限制，我认为我们可以增长得更快。我预测这些限制将在2025年下半年真正开始缓解。”尽管AWS销售额略显疲软，但由于营业利润率提高了732个基点，营业利润表现优于预期。正如我们之前指出的，200个基点的利润率提升得益于有利的会计变更影响。其他推动利润率改善的主要因素包括数据中心效率提升和成本降低。
至于公司其他部门，亚马逊在在线商店（收入增长7%）、实体店（收入增长8%）和其他类别（收入增长17%，包括广告等）均实现了收入超预期。 ales of offerings like health care services, shipping services, and co-brand credit card agreements. There were misses in Third Party Seller Services (9% growth), Subscription Services (10% growth), and Advertising Services (18% growth) but nothing was glaringly negative. By geography, North America sales increased 10% and we were pleased to see operating margins expand to 8% from 6.12% last year. In the international segment, Amazon’s revenue increased 8% and that was a slight miss, but operating income was a big beat. International turned in a profit in all four quarters of 2024. One of the big drivers of Amazon’s margin improvement this year was a reduction in the “cost to serve’ its online customers. The regionalization of its U.S. network has been a huge win, reducing costs and speeding up shipping times. But the company is also redesigning its U.S. inbound network, which improves where inventory is placed to get it quickly to customer’s doors. Another initiative is optimizing the number of items it sends to customers in the same package, which reduces costs and is less expensive to fulfill. The company reduced its global cost to serve on a per-unit basis for the second year in a row, and management thinks they can do it again in 2025. On the capital expenditure side, Amazon invested $26.3 billion in the fourth quarter which was higher than the $22 billion estimated. CFO Brian Olsavsky said on the conference call that he thinks this level is the run-rate that will be representative for 2025, implying north of $100 billion in capex. The bulk of these investments will go to support demand for AWS and technology infrastructure. “The vast majority of that capex spend is on AI for AWS. The way the AWS business works and the way the cash cycle works is that the faster we grow, the more capex we end-up spending because we have to procure data center and hardware and chips and networking gear ahead of when we’re able to monetize it,” Jassy explained. We can now confirm that Club names Meta Platforms , Microsoft , Alphabet , and Amazon have all talked about increasing their capex programs and this should ease concerns about a pause in spending on chips made by Club holding Nvidia due to Chinese startup DeepSeek’s low-cost AI model. However, Amazon also talked up its custom AI silicon Tranium 2 and Graviton chips. “Most AI compute has been driven by Nvidia chips, and we obviously have a deep partnership with Nvidia and will for as long as we can see into the future. However, there aren’t that many generative AI applications. of large scale yet. And when you get there, as we have with apps like Alexa and Rufus cost can get steep quickly. Customers want better price performance. It’s why we built our own custom AI silicon,” Jassy said. Guidance Amazon’s first-quarter 2025 guidance was lighter than anticipated, pressuring shares. The company expects net sales of $151 billion to $155.5 billion, representing an increase of 5% to 9% year over year. But the $153.25 billion midpoint and the even high end of the outlook missed the FactSet consensus of $158.5 billion. Unfavorable foreign exchange could be a factor, with management anticipating a $2.1 billion headwind from currency. Amazon expects to generate $14 billion to $18 billion of operating income in the first quarter. This too was a miss at the $16 billion midpoint and high end of the range compared to the $18.5 billion consensus. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long AMZN, NVDA, META, GOOGL, MSFT. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.Amazon logo on a brick building exterior, San Francisco, California, August 20, 2024.Smith Collection | Gado | Archive Photos | Getty ImagesAmazon shares fell roughly 4% on Thursday evening despite the e-commerce and cloud giant reporting a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter after the closing bell. The market participants during extended trading took issue with a first-quarter 2025 forecast that missed estimates and a larger-than-expected capital expenditure plan. However, we don’t see either item as thesis-changing.
原文链接：https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/06/amazons-quarterly-beats-took-a-back-seat-to-a-couple-dings-were-not-going-to-sweat.html