由 jpichiban Wed, 12 Feb 2025 08:12:39 GMT
德国极右翼政党德国选择党（AfD）的候选人爱丽丝·魏德尔在竞选集会上向挥舞德国国旗的支持者发表讲话。距离2月23日的联邦选举不到两周，德国极右翼政党在该国东部地区主导了民意调查——经济担忧在其受欢迎程度中起到了一定作用。1989年柏林墙倒塌后，东德经济普遍崩溃，当地企业和公司步履蹒跚，失业率飙升。尽管联邦政府花费了数千亿欧元提振该地区的经济并发展其基础设施，但动荡给该地区的许多人留下了苦涩的回忆。
“自20世纪90年代的转型以来，经济不安全感一直是东德部分人口的常见情绪，”德累斯顿工业大学的政治学家马内斯·魏斯基尔彻告诉CNBC。这为德国选择党（AfD）和其他边缘政党提供了机会，这些政党历史上往往在东德表现更好。德国人将在下周的选举中投出两票：一票决定直接代表他们选区的候选人，另一票决定一个政党。YouGov的最新民意调查和选区投票模型显示，德国东部出现了一道右翼的蓝色墙。在大多数东部选区，AfD候选人处于领先地位。然而，这在全国范围内并非如此。基民盟（CDU）及其附属政党基社盟（CSU）在全国民意调查中以约30%的得票率领先，而AfD以约20%的得票率位居第二，反映了该党在全国范围内日益增长的支持。AfD在上次联邦选举中仅获得略高于10%的选票。它不太可能加入下一届执政联盟，因为主流政党迄今为止拒绝与AfD合作。
柏林墙倒塌后德国统一后，东德经济的特点是收入较低、失业率较高、增长较西德弱。据贝伦贝格银行首席经济学家霍尔格·施密丁称，这些问题此后已基本消失，经济增长和失业等因素不再是主要问题。德国Ifo经济研究所预计今年东德经济增长0.7%，高于全国整体预期。德国联邦就业机构的数据显示，东德的失业率已从高点下降了一半以上，与西德的失业率差距大幅缩小。施密丁表示，在某些方面，东德各州实际上领先于西德各州。“根据生活成本调整后，东德的生活水平不再明显低于西德。基础设施通常比西德大部分地区更新、状况更好，”他告诉CNBC。然而，根据德国经济研究所（IW）2024年的研究，东德居民对经济仍持负面看法。不到三分之一的东德受访者表示他们对劳动力市场的发展感到满意，只有五分之一的人表示他们认为自己生活在一个增长迅速的地区。IW民主、社会和市场经济研究部门负责人马蒂亚斯·迪尔迈尔告诉CNBC，尽管AfD支持者与其他政党支持者相比，对个人经济状况的担忧仅略高，但“他们对整体经济的看法要糟糕得多。”迪尔迈尔补充说，绝大多数AfD选民表示他们非常担心整体经济，而支持其他政党的选民则处于这一光谱的另一端。
尽管IW称之为明显的经济追赶过程，但东德和西德之间的不平等仍然存在。AfD利用经济不安全感，尽管IW称之为明显的经济追赶过程，但东德和西德之间的不平等仍然存在。 d West Germany remain, Diermeier noted.”This is seen as unjust, unfair … by supporters of the fringe parties, but it’s also a sentiment that is very strongly activated by these political actors,” he explained, adding that the far right has worked to trigger pre-existing feelings of economic insecurity, being a “second class citizen,” and social decline among voters.”And this is what they do very successfully,” Diermeier said.At the same time, the AfD questions the accuracy of positive economic news, and — given the perception that the economy is not faring well — plays an “easy game” by claiming that mainstream parties, statistics agencies and other state-controlled bodies are misleading voters, he said.The AfD did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.TU Dresden’s Weisskircher also noted that the historical context is a significant factor.”Economics matters, rather because of a sentiment of long-term insecurity and unclear economic prospects — in a region that experienced severe economic problems in the 1990s and early 2000s, with high unemployment rates, among other issues,” he said.Anti-immigration, anti-establishment, anti-climate changeIt isn’t just economic concerns that have driven the success of the AfD in East Germany.Opposition to immigration is much higher in East Germany, and mainstream parties have less of a loyal base in the region, where they were not as present prior to the national reunification, Weisskircher said.Skepticism regarding climate change and green energy policies are also part of the AfD’s campaign. Wind turbines in particular have become a contested topic, with the AfD’s lead candidate Alice Weidel for the upcoming election calling for them to be torn down.The AfD also positions itself as the party representing those who have been left behind.A growing number of East Germans are leaving more rural regions in favor of major cities, Berenberg’s Schmieding explained, and this has weighed on local businesses, services and development. Those remaining in these areas are prime targets for the AfD’s rhetoric, and, as IW’s Diermeier noted, research has shown that these demographics are more prone to voting for the far right. Get the CNBC Daily Open report in your inbox every morning and keep up to date with the markets wherever you are. Subscribe
原文链接：https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/12/east-germany-is-a-far-right-stronghold-economics-helped-make-it-happen.html