由 jpichiban Wed, 19 Feb 2025 15:09:12 GMT
2025年2月11日，美国华盛顿特区白宫椭圆形办公室内，埃隆·马斯克与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普并肩而立，发表讲话。凯文·拉马克 | 路透社
华盛顿——美国总统唐纳德·特朗普与其亿万富翁顾问埃隆·马斯克以削减联邦赤字为名，试图对某些政府机构大刀阔斧改革，此举在联邦政府内部引发强烈震动。
“平衡预算！！！”特朗普本月在Truth Social上发文。马斯克也在X平台上补充道：“平衡预算即将实现。”
然而，现实情况远非如此简单。预算专家指出，即便特朗普成功削减了由马斯克领导的政府效率部所瞄准的支出——如美国国际开发署及政府范围内的多样性、公平性和包容性倡议——若其政策得以实施，仍将大幅增加赤字。
据无党派组织“负责任联邦预算委员会”分析，特朗普提出的一系列大幅减税措施——从延长其2017年即将到期的税法，到取消小费、加班工资及社会保障福利税——相较于现行联邦法律不做任何改变的情况，将在十年内至少增加5万亿美元的赤字。若其目前尚不明确的提案结构进一步扩展，这一数字可能攀升至11万亿美元。
“这是言辞与现实的对立，”CRFB高级政策主任马克·戈德温表示，该组织倡导减少赤字。“宣称‘我在削减赤字’总是受欢迎的，同时分发大量福利也同样受欢迎，而这位总统在这方面尤为知名。因此，我认为他们的言辞与现实并不相符。”
戈德温指出，特朗普政府并非首个做出此类承诺的总统，“但与前人相比，其规模完全不同。他们一方面谈论平衡预算，另一方面却使问题恶化25%至50%。”
国会掌控着联邦支出，目前尚不清楚特朗普的议程中有多少能在共和党主导的众议院和参议院通过。上周，众议院批准了一项预算案，要求减税4.5万亿美元，并提高美国债务上限4万亿美元。他们计划通过未在预算中具体说明的支出削减来部分抵消这一增加。立法者表示，他们正考虑从《通胀削减法案》下的医疗补助、SNAP福利及清洁能源资金中寻找节省空间。
特朗普大力主张削减外援，根据皮尤研究中心数据，21世纪以来，外援占美国年度预算的比例在0.7%至1.4%之间。去年，外援总额为719亿美元，占整体预算的1.2%，即便包括对乌克兰的紧急援助。
特朗普还呼吁解散教育部，据财政部数据，教育部约占联邦支出的3%。
“美国国际开发署、DEI拨款及教育管理更像是文化战争的目标，而非真正赤字削减议程的核心，”中右翼曼哈顿研究所预算专家兼高级研究员杰西卡·里德尔表示。“严肃的赤字削减需要解决占支出75%的社会保障、医疗保险、医疗补助、国防、退伍军人事务及债务利息。然而，特朗普几乎将所有导致赤字的因素排除在节省范围之外。”
尽管特朗普和马斯克试图缩减政府工作人员规模，但根据国会预算办公室2022财年报告，联邦雇员仅占预算的6%。
在社会保障和医疗保险方面，特朗普去年呼吁解决“福利的盗窃和不良管理”，同时承诺不会危及福利。
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普… Trump speaks at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., Feb. 18, 2025. Kevin Lamarque | ReutersBut the president and Musk have yet to show evidence of fraud that would bend the cost curve. An inspector general audit last year found that the error rate in Social Security benefits was 0.84% from fiscal 2015 to 2022 — a total of $71.8 billion in improper payments, “most of which were overpayments,” out of $8.6 trillion total.”To extend the tax cuts and still balance the budget in Trump’s term would require eliminating 30 percent of the federal budget,” Riedl said. “Incorporating Trump’s promise not to cut Social Security, Medicare would mean that half of all remaining spending must be eliminated to achieve balance. Congress is not going to approve that.”Rep. Kevin Hern, R-Okla., defended the tax agenda, saying “it’s what the president got elected on.” He said it’s still a work in progress how Republicans offset the cost of extending his 2017 tax cuts that expire at the end of this year.”That’s what we’re working on right now,” Hern said. “When you’re spending at twice the rate of what your revenue growth is, that’s a problem.”Some in the GOP say extending the lapsing Trump tax cuts shouldn’t count as red ink. Still, Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, warned: “We should be careful with things like that — that can get kind of gimmicky.”Further complicating matters, Republican leaders are eyeing a substantial increase to the $825 billion military budget this year — the House is pushing for a $100 billion boost, while the Senate calls for a $150 billion spending increase for the Pentagon. And they’re looking at about $150 billion, if not more, in new money for border security and stepped-up immigration enforcement.Democrats say that Trump, who called himself the “king of debt” during his first campaign, is bamboozling voters with a push for tax cuts that disproportionately benefit upper earners.”Donald Trump and his co-President Musk could fully eliminate all spending on foreign aid and education, and they still wouldn’t come even close to balancing the budget. Add the Trump tax cuts for billionaires and that will add trillions more to our debt,” said Rep. Brendan Boyle, of Pennsylvania, the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee. “The money we spend on foreign aid is a shiny penny that Trump is using to distract people from the gold coins that go to tax cuts for his billionaire buddies.”As Senate Republicans voted Tuesday night to begin advancing their budget resolution, one member of the caucus voted no: Sen. Rand Paul, of Kentucky, who warned that its “unstated purpose is to increase spending by $342 billion.”
原文链接：https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/19/despite-doge-trumps-agenda-calls-for-adding-trillions-of-dollars-to-us-debt.html