由 jpichiban 选举预测者及其总统竞选预测模型正处于聚光灯下。本文解释了如何更好地理解这些预测工作。预测模型通常基于大量数据，例如民意调查、经济指标和历史趋势，并运用统计学方法进行分析。它们可以提供对选举结果的初步评估，但不能完全准确地预测最终结果。在使用这些预测时，应注意其局限性，例如样本偏差和意外事件的影响。最终，选举结果取决于选民的最终决定。
## Original Title: Don’t Flip Out Over Election Forecasts
## Article Content:
Election forecasters and their predictive models in the presidential race are in the spotlight. Here’s how to understand this work better.
Election forecasts are based on statistical analysis of polls, economic data, and historical trends. While they can provide a general idea of the race, they are not perfect predictors. Election outcomes are influenced by factors that models can’t always capture, such as voter turnout and unexpected events. It’s important to remember that these are just predictions, and the final outcome will depend on the voters’ choices.
Original article: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/03/opinion/harris-trump-polls.html